https://reports.zhihai.me/tags/%E6%B2%83%E4%BB%80/Recent content in 沃什 on 脱水研报HugoenWed, 02 Sep 2026 15:48:00 +0800https://reports.zhihai.me/posts/2026-09-02-us-treasury-10y-yield-48-warsh/Wed, 02 Sep 2026 15:48:00 +0800https://reports.zhihai.me/posts/2026-09-02-us-treasury-10y-yield-48-warsh/杰克逊霍尔年会后 10 年期美债收益率一度冲至 4.8%。国联民生认为，沃什鹰派表态推高短期实际利率与加息预期，但未触及长债核心的期限溢价矛盾；基本面三大矛盾（财政、供需、政策）短期难解，长债利率大概率维持高位震荡，拐点需短、中、长三维度跟踪验证。